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It's down to one race. The final chance for drivers who may have caught tough breaks or just flat out underperformed during the season to try and make NASCAR's Chase for the Championship.

There are four drivers who can make the Chase regardless of who wins Saturday night at Richmond -- others aren't so lucky.

Jamie McMurray just has to qualify for and start Saturday night's race at Richmond, and he has secured his spot in the Chase. Many outlets reported him being in but his clinch isn't official, merely due to formality. In all reality, McMurray along with Kyle Busch locked up their spots last Sunday at Darlington.

Ryan Newman made it all the way to the final round of last season's Chase for the Championship without even visiting victory lane. He can keep his hopes alive to match his success with a 31st place finish or better, a 32nd place finish with at least one lap led or a 33rd place finish if he leads the most lap.

Jeff Gordon, who's likely making his final career start at Richmond, clinches his spot with a finish of 17th or better, 18th with at least one lap led or19th with the most laps led. While Gordon hasn't won at Richmond since 2000, he also hasn't finished worse than 11th since 2012's spring race when he finished 23rd.

Paul Menard can clinch his spot by finishing ninth or better, 10th with at least one lap led or 11th with the most laps led.

If someone who has won already wins Saturday night then Jamie McMurray, Ryan Newman and Jeff Gordon clinch regardless of finishing position. This would also make it easier for Menard who would need just a finish of 38th or better, 39th with at least one lap led or 40th with the most laps led.

A repeat winner would also open the door for Clint Bowyer to make the Chase with a finishing 28th or better, 29th with at least one lap led or 30th with the most laps led. Bowyer has two wins and ten top ten finishes at the Virginia short track.

Aric Almirola and Kasey Kahne who both made the Chase last season do not have the best odds to repeat this season. Both will need basically everybody ahead of them to have poor finishes in order to clinch but both could put themselves in with a win. While Almirola hasn't won at Richmond, Kahne earned his first career Sprint Cup win at Richmond back in 2005.

But for some drivers, 12 to be exact, it's win or go home. Tony Stewart, who has multiple wins at the track, is in desperate need of a win to make the Chase. The Roush Fenway Racing trio of Trevor Bayne, Ricky Stenhouse, Jr, and Greg Biffle are in the same boat. Stewart's teammate Danica Patrick also needs a win.

Kyle Larson, Austin Dillon, A.J. Allmendinger, Casey Mears, David Ragan, Sam Hornish, Jr, and Justin Allgaier are among the others who must win to earn a spot in the Chase.

To the casual race fan it may seem like algebra to a thousandth power but to many race fans they know these Chase scenarios will insure the drivers on the bubble will leave nothing to chance leaving Richmond late Saturday night.